Issues

• Update the TSB-AD-U leader claim: official leaderboard is 0.59, not 0.42

  microprediction/timemachines#171 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Oct 14, 2026

• Papers page mixes model sets in “~+2 nats, 161/162 series” summary

  microprediction/timemachines#170 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Oct 8, 2026

• Homepage calls the clipped Rosenblatt transform a bijection

  microprediction/timemachines#169 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Oct 4, 2026

• Papers page conflates per-tick Mahalanobis scoring with Wald’s sequential test

  microprediction/timemachines#168 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Oct 3, 2026

• PyPI v2.1.0 still ships the pre-fix two-channel p-value rule

  microprediction/timemachines#167 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 28, 2026

• RRCF 1e-4 calibration row has a 2x–10x order-statistic resolution floor

  microprediction/timemachines#166 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• RRCF benchmark retains the first shingle forever and runs at 257 leaves

  microprediction/timemachines#165 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• POT splice can make p-values increase with Mahalanobis distance

  microprediction/timemachines#164 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• Published calibration table predates the current Bonferroni p-value rule

  microprediction/timemachines#163 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• ucr_run's 4,000-point warm-up is not inert for the 250-exceedance POT state

  microprediction/timemachines#162 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• [P2] Papers page overstates Pickands–Balkema–de Haan as a universal finite-threshold GPD law

  microprediction/timemachines#161 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• Fixed power-iteration seed can miss the leading scatter factor

  microprediction/timemachines#160 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• granger_overnight seed keys are unstable across Python processes

  microprediction/timemachines#159 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• frontend_loglik scores 1–200-step blocked forecasts as “one-step”

  microprediction/timemachines#158 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• DSpot tail mass decays toward zero after the excess buffer fills

  microprediction/timemachines#157 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 27, 2026

• FRED transform uses future sign information to rewrite historical changes

  microprediction/timemachines#156 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• granger_fred.py cannot infer test size from near-zero lag-1 correlation

  microprediction/timemachines#155 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• zbank silently delays all scores for k * max(strides) observations

  microprediction/timemachines#154 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• Exact hits on supported point-mass forecasts become deep-tail anomalies

  microprediction/timemachines#153 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• Winsorized null moments make guard_p self-reinforcing and anti-conservative

  microprediction/timemachines#152 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• NLP-only alarms report run=0 and bypass adapt_after

  microprediction/timemachines#151 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• pot_level does not control the NLP tail threshold

  microprediction/timemachines#150 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• NLP tail calibration is not invariant to observation units during startup

  microprediction/timemachines#149 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 26, 2026

• zbank duplicate grid values alias state and advance one engine multiple times per tick

  microprediction/timemachines#148 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 25, 2026

• Missing-tick guard freezes the parade and misaligns forecast horizons

  microprediction/timemachines#147 · Filter by author microprediction opened on Sep 25, 2026