The Athletic has live coverage of Ecuador vs Germany at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The World Cup is getting serious. Day 14 marked the beginning of the end for the opening phase, with six nations contesting their final group matches.
Qatar and the Czech Republic were eliminated, while others, including Morocco, Canada, Switzerland and South Africa — the biggest risers in our daily rankings — secured their places in the knockouts.
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Meanwhile, after Vinicius Junior reminded everyone of his quality with two goals in Brazil’s 3-0 victory over Scotland, Steve Clark’s side are left praying they might still progress as one of the eight best third-placed teams.
Thanks to The Athletic’s live projection tool, we are starting to see how the round of 32 is shaping up.
But what changes to our list did Wednesday’s fixtures bring?
1. France
FIFA ranking: 3
➡️ (arrow depicts movement from our previous ranking)
It is going to take something special to knock France off the top of our rankings, particularly as they seem to have found their formula for success. Since the second half of their opening game against Senegal, Michael Olise has played in the No 10 role and he provided another two assists in the 3-0 win against Iraq, adding to his match-changing performance in the opening game.
A storm stoppage in Philadelphia couldn’t take the wind out of Kylian Mbappe’s sails. He scored twice, for the second match in a row, as France booked their spot in the knockouts. A game against Norway on Friday awaits to see who tops the group. Manager Didier Deschamps will miss that game following the death of his mother but is expected to return for the knockouts.
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2. Argentina
FIFA ranking: 1
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Lionel Messi is regarded by many as the greatest player of all time, but did we see this coming? Complete domination by the 39-year-old, who has now scored all five of Argentina’s goals in their two wins and became the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer after his double against Austria.
The defence will be pleased too after consecutive clean sheets, though Cristian Romero’s substitution against Austria due to a knee injury is a concern.
It might be beneficial for some of their other forward players to pick up form as Messi can’t win the World Cup single-handedly. Or can he?
3. Germany
FIFA ranking: 10
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Germany won 7-1 against Curacao, but their 2-1 victory over the Ivory Coast was a more meaningful result, even if they left it late.
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Supersub Deniz Undav’s double completed the turnaround win with a brace off the bench — the added-time victory came courtesy of a high-quality ball from Felix Nmecha and a turn-and-finish from Undav.
The win secured them progression to the knockouts at the top of Group E, the first time they have emerged from the group stage at a World Cup since they lifted the trophy in 2014. Julian Nagelsmann’s side have momentum.
4. Spain
FIFA ranking: 2
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Responded to the humiliation of drawing against Cape Verde in their opener by producing one of the most one-sided performances of the tournament so far in beating Saudi Arabia 4-0. They had 22 shots, produced 2.85 xG and could easily have scored a few more.
Lamine Yamal scored 10 minutes into his first World Cup start and got 45 minutes under his belt, while Mikel Oyarzabal overcame the embarrassment of not touching the ball for the first half-hour against Cape Verde by scoring twice. Job done.
Now to complete the Group H job by beating Uruguay on Friday.
5. Brazil
FIFA ranking: 6
⬆️ 2
After their opening draw with Morocco, Brazil have gone from strength to strength, with two 3-0 wins over Haiti and Scotland.
They have been comfortable letting the opposition have the ball and pouncing at the right moments, and have played with more of an edge since Manchester United’s Matheus Cunha came in up front against Haiti.
Vinicius Jr is their star of the tournament, with four goals already, while Neymar made a substitute appearance against Scotland.
Despite topping the group, their round-of-32 opponent could be tricky and looks likely to be either Japan or the Netherlands in Houston.
6. England
FIFA ranking: 4
⬇️ 1
A dull, underwhelming performance and result against lower-ranked opponents? England, you’re back! After the excitement, goals and thrilling attacking football of their 4-2 victory over Croatia, the 0-0 draw against Ghana has stopped everyone shouting: “It’s coming home.” Well, for a few days at least. Victory against Panama in their final group match will get England back on track as group winners.
7. Netherlands
FIFA ranking: 8
⬇️ 1
Thrashing Sweden laid down a marker for the Netherlands.
Brian Brobbey came into their starting line-up and powered through Sweden’s defence as their attack intertwined beautifully with Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville also on the scoresheet.
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With a final match to come against beleaguered Tunisia, they look likely to top a group that had looked tricky on paper.
8. Morocco
FIFA ranking: 7
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So far, so good for Mohamed Ouahbi, who was hired as Morocco’s manager in March, having led the nation to victory at the Under-20 World Cup in 2025.
In Group C, they went toe-to-toe with Brazil before beating Scotland and Haiti rather convincingly. Using Ismael Saibari to lead the line has proved an inspired choice — he has scored one goal in every group game.
Their round-of-32 draw doesn’t look kind, though. According to The Athletic’s projection tool, they have a 62 per cent chance of facing the Netherlands, who sit just above them in our rankings.
9. United States
FIFA ranking: 17
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When people are genuinely discussing whether the U.S. can win the World Cup, you know it’s going well.
All right, that might be a bit much, but the Americans have made a perfect start. They’re positive, adventurous and fun to watch, what with their rotating cast of attacking talents, and didn’t even need Christian Pulisic when beating Australia 2-0, a result which backed up their stunning 4-1 victory over Paraguay.
Already through as group winners, Mauricio Pochettino can afford to rest Pulisic against Turkey on Thursday as they plot a route deep into the tournament. Excitement is building.
10. Norway
FIFA ranking: 31
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The dark horses are galloping on to the knockouts and have to be taken more seriously after their 3-2 win over Senegal.
Norway ran the (stripped) African champions’ defence ragged. They had chances galore and forced mistakes from the opposition backline.
Conceding late made the victory less emphatic, but seven goals in two games speaks to their firepower. Key to that is Erling Haaland, who is proving unstoppable after another double. They have shown defensive vulnerability, but have been able to outscore their opposition.
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11. Mexico
FIFA ranking: 13
⬆️ 2
The first team to collect three wins from three in the group stage. Mexico scored six goals and kept three clean sheets, beating the Czech Republic 3-0 with a rotated side on Wednesday.
Several Mexico players caught the eye, including 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora and forward Julian Quinones, who has scored two goals.
Winning Group A means they will stay in Mexico City for the round of 32 (and, if they make it through, round of 16), with The Athletic’s live prediction tool giving a 31 per cent chance of Scotland being their opponents and a 14 per cent chance of them facing Ecuador.
12. Colombia
FIFA ranking: 14
⬇️ 1
A team of attacking talent and willing runners aplenty, who have a 100 per cent record with two wins from two. Neither victory was wholly convincing, with a wobble against Uzbekistan and then an unnecessarily tight 1-0 victory over DR Congo, but Colombia have achieved their first aim of the tournament by progressing to the knockout stages.
To do it with a game to spare takes the pressure off their lip-licking game with Portugal this weekend, but they’ll still want to top the group, which they can do with a draw.
13. Portugal
FIFA ranking: 5
⬇️ 1
Portugal put right the wrongs of their underwhelming opener against DR Congo with a much-needed 5-0 shellacking of Uzbekistan to get their tournament up and running.
The fact Ronaldo scored twice wasn’t just an historic moment (he became the first man to score in six different World Cups) but important to quell the incessant noise about his place in the side, at least for a few days.
However, given how overawed and inexperienced the Uzbek defence was, any excitement at Portugal’s overall prospects should be tempered. Their clash with Colombia next up will tell us more.
14. Switzerland
FIFA ranking: 19
⬆️ 4
After starting with a draw against Qatar, Switzerland progressed to the knockout stages as Group B winners following victories over Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina. An encouraging sign has been the performances of 20-year-old Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi, who has breathed new life into the team with three goals.
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After going undefeated, they look likely to have a fairly kind landing in the next phase, with Algeria (36 per cent), Austria (24 per cent) and Egypt (13 per cent) among their most likely opponents in the round of 32.
15. Croatia
FIFA ranking: 11
⬇️ 1
Survived a couple of real scares against Panama to edge a narrow 1-0 victory thanks to substitute Ante Budimir’s close-range finish.
How far can Croatia’s golden-olden generation take them in this tournament? The signs in their opening two matches haven’t been great, but one thing we have learned from the finalists in 2018 and semi-finalists in 2022 is to never write them off.
16. Egypt
FIFA ranking: 29
⬇️ 1
So far, so good.
Made to sweat by New Zealand and had to come from behind, but Egypt finally won a match at the World Cup for the first time, inspired by a goal and an assist from Mohamed Salah.
You wouldn’t say they’ve offered much evidence that they can go deep in the tournament, but victory over Iran on Friday will mean they top Group G and would see them paired with a third-placed side in the round of 32.
17. Japan
FIFA ranking: 18
⬇️ 1
Japan are more than 99 per cent likely to progress from the group after a convincing 4-0 win over Tunisia, which included an Ayase Ueda double.
In the 1,000th World Cup match, Japan won by their largest-ever margin at a World Cup and became the first Asian team to score four goals in a game at the tournament. Tunisia are struggling, so it is probably not the time to get too carried away with the emphatic victory, but Japan have shown a clear sense of identity in their opening two matches, playing with speed and intensity and an effective press.
18. Ghana
FIFA ranking: 73
⬆️ 2
It couldn’t have gone much better. Victory over Panama was brilliantly backed up by earning a 0-0 draw against England with a resolute, organised performance.
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They could even have won via sporadic, pacy threats on the counter and, if VAR hadn’t gone for a coffee, they might have had a penalty for Ezri Konsa’s foul on Prince Kwabena Adu.
Four points from two games essentially secures their progress to the knockout stages.
19. Canada
FIFA ranking: 30
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Canada can be happy with their work in the group stages. They emphatically earned their first men’s World Cup win with a 6-0 victory over Qatar as key player Jonathan David found form, scoring a hat-trick.
Ismael Kone breaking his leg against Qatar was a dark cloud, but Canada still progressed in second place. They had the chance to finish top and remain on home turf for the round of 32, but lost to Switzerland.
Their opponents for the next round at SoFi Stadium? South Africa. It could be a lot worse.
20. Belgium
FIFA ranking: 9
⬆️ 1
That FIFA ranking might need updating to a more realistic number.
Belgium’s stats in their second match against Iran (23 shots, 1.82 xG, 70 per cent possession) tell you they dominated the game and should have won, but stats also tell you that Kevin De Bruyne is one of the Premier League’s best ever players and Romelu Lukaku is the Belgian national team’s record goalscorer, and right now those things don’t mean too much.
Belgium look like half a team. They have failed to beat Egypt and Iran, and even if they now beat New Zealand on Friday, how far can they realistically go in this tournament? They need Jeremy Doku back and firing, that’s for sure.
21. South Korea
FIFA ranking: 22
⬇️ 4
South Korea suffered defeat against South Africa in their final group game, but they should still progress to the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed teams.
They made a promising start with a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, but didn’t score again when they lost to Mexico in their second match.
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The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them a 94 per cent chance of making the round of 32, with Egypt (55 per cent) their most likely opponent.
22. Ivory Coast
FIFA ranking: 33
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The Ivory Coast have shown an ability to compete with anyone and led Germany for more than half an hour.
Their wingers, Yan Diomande and Amad, have proven a handful for defences, but they were unable to hold onto what would have been a statement victory. Still, they have a 95 per cent chance of progressing to the World Cup knockout stage for the first time, according to The Athletic’s forecast model.
23. Uruguay
FIFA ranking: 16
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Oh dear. Two matches, 44 shots, 3.88 xG, three goals… but only two points. And now they need a result against Spain to go through. Not what Marcelo Bielsa envisaged when plotting Uruguay’s progress from Group H.
We weren’t quite sure what to expect from Uruguay pre-tournament; they had finished level on points with Brazil and Colombia in qualification and clearly have a high-quality midfield, but their form coming into the finals was dreadful.
They’ve carried that into the World Cup, and the fragile, porous two-man wall that allowed Cape Verde’s free kick to sneak in sums up Uruguay so far.
24. Algeria
FIFA ranking: 28
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Algeria showed they are a threat from set pieces, scoring both goals from corners in a turnaround win against Jordan. This could help them hurt superior opposition from limited chances. Riyad Mahrez came back into the starting line-up and was a creative spark in open play.
Their game against Austria on Sunday will now determine who goes through in second, but three points puts them in with a chance of a third-place progression. They have a minus-two goal difference, though, so have work to do.
25. Sweden
FIFA ranking: 38
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After a 5-1 victory against Tunisia, Sweden were on the other side of a 5-1 scoreline after being soundly beaten by the Netherlands.
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This shows where the team are at: capable of tearing apart inferior opposition with Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak, but a level behind the top international teams and vulnerable defensively.
26. Senegal
FIFA ranking: 15
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No points on the board after two games. Senegal had a positive start to the tournament, with a good first-half showing against France, but since then, they’ve conceded six goals.
The silver lining is Ismaila Sarr’s double against Norway and Ibrahim Mbaye’s goal against France, showing they are capable of breaching top teams.
But against Norway, they made defensive errors and could have conceded more. Edouard Mendy produced top saves, but came off injured after an hour.
Now a win against Iraq is needed on Friday, and a comprehensive one to have a competitive goal difference to sneak through as one of the eight best third-placed teams. With a real risk of being knocked out, they take a large drop in the rankings.
27. Australia
FIFA ranking: 27
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Hopes were high for Australia after their 2-0 win over Turkey in their opening game, but they struggled to keep up with the USMNT, particularly in the first half.
Head coach Tony Popovic made the slightly odd decision to leave out both goalscorers from the Turkey game, Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe, from his starting line-up. Without Irankunda’s electric pace on the counter-attack, they looked decidedly less threatening.
They play Paraguay for second place in their final group game.
28. Austria
FIFA ranking: 25
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Ralf Rangnick tinkered with the starting line-up against Argentina, bringing Tottenham’s Kevin Danso into the back line and PSV’s Paul Wanner into midfield.
The problem is that this team, despite having quality, doesn’t have prolific forwards or a formidable defence (conceding to Jordan). It is unclear where their real strength to hurt better teams lies.
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After Algeria’s win over Jordan, a meeting with them on Sunday will determine who progresses in second place in the group.
29. Iran
FIFA ranking: 20
⬆️ 1
On the face of it, they achieved a great result against Belgium, against whom they created some excellent chances and had an intuitive free-kick goal narrowly ruled out for offside. But Iran are still waiting for their first win of the tournament and their hopes of progressing to the knockout stages against all odds are on a knife-edge.
Drawing with New Zealand in their opening game may prove costly — as may not taking advantage of Belgium going down to 10 men — but Iran will hope Egypt may take their foot off the gas in their final Group G game on Friday.
30. Ecuador
FIFA ranking: 24
⬆️ 1
Having come into the tournament on the back of a 19-match, two-year unbeaten streak, Ecuador have been seriously disappointing, losing to Ivory Coast and now drawing with Curacao.
They have failed to score from a collective 4.08 xG at the tournament, making it as much about their poor finishing as hard luck. Enner Valencia, now 36, is not proving as prolific as he was in the Qatar 2022 group stages, when he scored three goals.
The Curacao result puts their progression in jeopardy, with a final group game against Germany to come on Thursday. They will hope Nagelsmann rotates his team having already secured progression.
31. Bosnia and Herzegovina
FIFA ranking: 64
⬆️ 6
Unlike the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t waste their chance after progressing through the European qualification play-offs, knocking out Italy in the final. A 3-1 win against Qatar has practically confirmed their place in the World Cup’s round of 32, adding to the point earned against Canada in their opening draw.
Having finished third in Group B, they are set to face another host, the United States, in San Francisco next.
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32. Paraguay
FIFA ranking: 40
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Their 1-0 win over Turkey was much more like it from a side who were talked up ahead of the tournament for their solidity in defence and talent in attack.
Paraguay came flying out of the blocks, scoring after just two minutes with an excellent long-distance strike from Matias Galarza. And even after forward Miguel Almiron became the first player ever to be sent off for covering their mouth while speaking to an opponent, Paraguay stood firm while they faced a barrage of attacks from Turkey, who could not break down a defence that looked so fragile against the USMNT.
They will be without the suspended Almiron for their clash against Australia, a significant blow as they aim to finish in second place.
33. South Africa
FIFA ranking: 61
⬆️ 10
After South Africa’s poor defeat in their opener against Mexico, few would have predicted the turnaround that has followed — and the big jump in our rankings.
Manager Hugo Broos has tinkered with his line-up throughout the group stage, including dropping Burnley’s Lyle Foster after the 2-0 Mexico loss, and the side looked more threatening on the break against South Korea on Wednesday in a dramatic 1-0 victory.
As Group A runners-up, they progressed to the knockouts for the first time and their round-of-32 opponent is another host nation — they will face Canada in Los Angeles.
34. Cape Verde
FIFA ranking: 67
⬇️ 1
One of the stories of this World Cup. Unbeaten in two matches, claiming that shock draw against Spain in their opener and then backing it up with another famous result, drawing 2-2 with Uruguay, via a 40-yard free kick (the less said about the Uruguay wall, the better) and then a moment of ingenuity from substitute Helio Varela.
That’s two former world champions Cape Verde have held off, so how about their chances against Saudi Arabia next? Victory in that match would make Cape Verde the most unlikely knockout-stage team in the history of this tournament. Even a draw might do. Incredible.
35. Scotland
FIFA ranking: 41
⬇️ 6
Scotland’s job in their final group game was to avoid a heavy defeat, so they left the game disappointed after a 3-0 loss. They were allowed possession by Brazil but made decisive errors at the back, and were punished.
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Despite beating Haiti in their opening game, they only scored one goal in the group stages and have looked relatively flat, and Scott McTominay has not got going.
Their hopes of progression lie in other nations’ hands. The Athletic’s live projection tool gives them a 38 per cent chance of reaching the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams.
36. Saudi Arabia
FIFA ranking: 60
⬆️ 2
After their spirited draw with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia were brought back down to earth with a 4-0 humbling by Spain. To be honest, it could have been much worse than four, given the Spaniards’ total and complete dominance.
However, if you’d offered the Saudis the chance to beat Cape Verde and finish on four points in at least third position in Group H, they’d have undoubtedly taken it. That is now their task.
37. New Zealand
FIFA ranking: 85
⬆️ 2
Just like in their previous World Cup appearance in 2010, they’ve been stubborn and hard to beat. They drew all three matches 16 years ago, but succumbed to their first defeat at the tournament since their debut (and only other) in 1982 when losing 3-1 to Mohamed Salah’s Egypt, despite taking a first-half lead through Finn Surman.
New Zealand still have the opportunity to create history — beat a flagging Belgium team on Saturday to almost certainly reach the knockout stages for the first time.
38. DR Congo
➡️
FIFA ranking: 46
Again gave a good account of themselves against star-studded opposition, following up their shock 1-1 draw against Portugal with a narrow 1-0 defeat by Colombia. Defensively they look pretty handy and always carry a threat on the break through Yoane Wissa.
Victory against Uzbekistan this weekend surely puts them through to the knockout stage with four points.
39. Curacao
FIFA ranking: 82
⬆️ 1
Step aside, Vozinha. Eloy Room was the latest goalkeeper to put on a show-stopping performance for a debuting nation, earning them a point.
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The 37-year-old made history for Curacao with his 15 saves against Ecuador, and means they still have a chance of progression if they beat Ivory Coast.
40. Iraq
FIFA ranking: 57
Iraq haven’t got near their opponents, who in fairness have boasted two of the best forwards in the world in Haaland and Mbappe. Their captain, Aymen Hussein, who scored against Norway, had to be replaced with an injury after 26 minutes in their loss to France, which didn’t help matters.
Beat Senegal comprehensively, and they could still progress. But the chances of that seem slim.
41. Uzbekistan
FIFA ranking: 50
⬇️ 2
After a good showing against Colombia, Uzbekistan wilted against Portugal and Ronaldo, defending with naivety in a humbling 5-0 defeat that had star player Abdukodir Khusanov in tears at full time.
Uzbekistan were not expected to earn a point from their two opening matches, but with their confidence and goal difference both having taken a hammering, they now need to beat DR Congo and get lucky with results elsewhere to progress as a third-placed team.
It looks like a tall order.
The eliminated teams
42. Czech Republic
FIFA ranking: 43
⬇️ 6
The Czech Republic go home disappointed, having left themselves needing a win against Mexico in their final group game and losing 3-0.
Considering the fight they showed to beat the Republic of Ireland and Denmark in the European qualification play-offs to get here, they underwhelmed at this World Cup, earning just one point against South Africa and finishing bottom of Group A.
43. Panama
FIFA ranking: 34
⬆️ 1
Knocked out of the tournament with a game to spare having narrowly lost against Ghana (via a last-minute goal) and Croatia, both games finishing 1-0.
There will be pride in how they performed, but also real regrets over missed chances and spurned opportunities.
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44. Jordan
FIFA ranking: 63
⬆️ 1
Jordan have bowed out at their debut tournament after losses to Austria and Algeria. They scored in both games, but didn’t do enough to stifle their opponents, something we have seen from other debut nations, mainly from standout goalkeeping performances.
45. Haiti
FIFA ranking: 83
⬆️ 1
They played with freedom against Morocco, knowing they were already eliminated, and even though they were beaten 4-2, Sunderland’s Wilson Isidor scored a memorable goal.
After appearing in their first World Cup since 1974, they will hope to be luckier in their draw next time — and avoid two top-10-ranked nations in Morocco and Brazil.
46. Qatar
FIFA ranking: 56
⬇️ 7
Qatar were eliminated after a 3-1 loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Having earned a point against Switzerland in their opening match, manager Julen Lopetegui couldn’t prevent them from one of the worst performances of the group stage with a 6-0 loss and two red cards against Canada in their second outing. They failed to build on that opening point.
47. Turkey
FIFA ranking: 23
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Note to self: do not ever, ever, trust Turkey. Even with two of the most talented players the nation has ever produced, Kenan Yildiz and Arda Guler, in attack, do not ever trust Turkey. Even with an experienced defence, including Brighton and Hove Albion’s player of the season, Ferdi Kadioglu, do not trust Turkey. Even if you think Hakan Calhanoglu is a fantastic player, with a wicked shot and a passing range to die for. DO. NOT. TRUST. TURKEY.
Somehow, having been drawn in possibly the “easiest” group, Turkey, who were many people’s pre-tournament ‘dark horses’, are out after just two games. Sixty-two shots without scoring a single goal across the two games, a pathetic effort, really. Perhaps they were just very unlucky, but if they can’t score against a Paraguay side who played half the game with 10 men, they don’t deserve any luck.
48. Tunisia
FIFA ranking: 45
➡️
Tunisia’s elimination topped off a miserable World Cup group stage. After a 5-1 loss to Sweden, they sacked Sabri Lamouchi, but his replacement, Herve Renard, could not prevent them from a 4-0 trouncing at the hands of Japan.
On a minus-eight goal difference after two games, no team has a worse losing margin.